1 Fast Facts

2 First Wave Ended

SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic in the following countries:

Country Reported Case Total Expected New Cases/Day Infected Population % (1)
2 Andorra 844 3 1.10
3 Antigua and Barbuda 26 0 0.03
4 Australia 7,229 14 0.03
5 Austria 16,759 43 0.19
7 Barbados 92 0 0.03
10 Belize 18 0 0.00
11 Benin 244 14 0.00
14 Brunei 141 0 0.03
16 Burkina Faso 881 7 0.00
17 Burma 232 2 0.00
19 Cambodia 125 0 0.00
22 China 84,161 158 0.01
23 Costa Rica 1,105 10 0.02
26 Cuba 2,092 13 0.02
27 Cyprus 952 3 0.08
28 Czechia 9,364 50 0.09
30 Diamond Princess 712 1 19.27
33 Ecuador 40,414 1,339 0.23
34 Eritrea 39 0 0.00
35 Estonia 1,870 5 0.14
37 Fiji 18 0 0.00
39 France 188,450 2,399 0.29
42 Germany 183,879 442 0.22
44 Greece 2,937 10 0.03
49 Holy See 12 0 1.20
54 Israel 17,285 17 0.20
56 Jamaica 590 4 0.02
59 Korea, South 11,590 40 0.02
61 Laos 19 0 0.00
62 Latvia 1,071 6 0.06
65 Liechtenstein 82 0 0.22
66 Lithuania 1,682 34 0.06
67 Luxembourg 4,020 7 0.64
68 Malaysia 7,877 57 0.02
71 Malta 620 5 0.14
72 Mauritius 335 2 0.03
74 Monaco 99 0 0.25
78 Namibia 25 0 0.00
80 New Zealand 1,504 3 0.03
82 Niger 960 7 0.00
83 North Macedonia 2,391 27 0.11
84 Norway 8,455 21 0.16
86 Papua New Guinea 8 0 0.00
90 Portugal 32,895 320 0.32
94 Saint Kitts and Nevis 15 0 0.03
95 Saint Lucia 18 0 0.01
96 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 26 0 0.02
99 Seychelles 11 0 0.01
104 Spain 239,932 4,023 0.51
106 Switzerland 30,874 13 0.36
107 Taiwan* 443 1 0.00
109 Thailand 3,083 4 0.00
110 Timor-Leste 24 0 0.00
111 Trinidad and Tobago 117 0 0.01
112 Tunisia 1,086 1 0.01
116 Uruguay 826 14 0.02
119 Vietnam 328 1 0.00
120 West Bank and Gaza 451 3 0.01

3 First Wave Ongoing

The following countries are still in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country Reported Cases Expected Additional Cases In First Wave Expected Total Cases For First Wave Infected Population % (1)
1 Albania 1,164 71 1,235 0.04
6 Bahamas 102 3 105 0.03
8 Belarus 44,255 23,023 67,278 0.71
9 Belgium 58,615 754 59,369 0.51
12 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2,535 250 2,785 0.08
13 Botswana 40 2 42 0.00
15 Bulgaria 2,538 977 3,515 0.05
18 Cabo Verde 466 134 600 0.11
20 Canada 93,959 16,662 110,621 0.29
21 Chad 803 199 1,002 0.01
24 Cote dā€™Ivoire 3,024 1,922 4,946 0.02
25 Croatia 2,246 7 2,253 0.05
29 Denmark 11,934 593 12,527 0.22
31 Dominica 18 6 24 0.03
32 Dominican Republic 17,752 17,101 34,853 0.32
36 Eswatini 294 79 373 0.03
38 Finland 6,887 678 7,565 0.14
40 Gambia 25 13 38 0.00
41 Georgia 796 68 864 0.02
43 Ghana 8,297 3,436 11,733 0.04
45 Grenada 23 1 24 0.02
46 Guinea 3,886 1,641 5,527 0.04
47 Guinea-Bissau 1,339 21 1,360 0.07
48 Guyana 153 61 214 0.03
50 Hungary 3,921 219 4,140 0.04
51 Iceland 1,806 14 1,820 0.53
52 Iran 157,562 20,005 177,567 0.21
53 Ireland 25,066 633 25,699 0.52
55 Italy 233,515 3,556 237,071 0.39
57 Japan 16,837 352 17,189 0.01
58 Jordan 755 67 822 0.01
60 Kosovo 1,064 11 1,075 0.00
63 Lebanon 1,242 99 1,341 0.02
64 Liberia 311 34 345 0.01
69 Maldives 1,841 688 2,529 0.47
70 Mali 1,351 870 2,221 0.01
73 Moldova 8,548 4,808 13,356 0.33
75 Montenegro 324 2 326 0.05
76 Morocco 7,866 1,459 9,325 0.03
77 MS Zaandam 9 6 15 0.83
79 Netherlands 46,852 464 47,316 0.28
81 Nicaragua 1,118 286 1,404 0.02
85 Panama 14,095 6,255 20,350 0.47
87 Paraguay 1,013 718 1,731 0.02
88 Philippines 18,997 10,770 29,767 0.03
89 Poland 24,395 8,210 32,605 0.09
91 Romania 19,517 2,377 21,894 0.11
92 Russia 423,186 215,487 638,673 0.44
93 Rwanda 384 92 476 0.00
97 San Marino 672 87 759 2.23
98 Serbia 11,454 168 11,622 0.13
100 Singapore 35,836 5,439 41,275 0.71
101 Slovakia 1,522 56 1,578 0.03
102 Slovenia 1,475 15 1,490 0.07
103 Somalia 2,089 574 2,663 0.02
105 Sweden 38,589 13,584 52,173 0.52
108 Tanzania 509 11 520 0.00
113 Turkey 165,555 1,212 166,767 0.20
114 Ukraine 24,895 7,657 32,552 0.07
115 United Kingdom 279,392 35,305 314,697 0.46
117 US 1,831,821 271,793 2,103,614 0.64
118 Uzbekistan 3,760 294 4,054 0.01
121 Zambia 1,089 111 1,200 0.01

Notes:

  1. Infected Population refers to the share of reported cases wrt. total population of the country and does not include patients that were not reported or asymptomatic.

  2. If future cases are 0, the first wave has ended in the country according to our model and the virus is now in an endemic phase, where new cases will pop up and need to be handled efficiently.

We could not yet find reliable models countries that are not listed above, but we are updating the list and our assessment on a daily basis.

Disclaimer: This is preliminary research provided on a timely basis for information only. It is not intended as commercial, legal, medical, financial or political advice.

4 Frequently Asked Question (FAQ)

4.1 What is this ?

An analysis of Covid-19 case time series around the world with projections and forecasts how cases numbers might grow in the week ahead due to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (Corona) virus infections.

4.2 How does this work ?

4.3 Whom should I contact for questions ?

Please contact Raphael Volz () in case of questions about the analyses. Your feedback is welcome!