1 Fast Facts

2 First Wave Ended

SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic in the following countries:

Country Reported Case Total Expected New Cases/Day Infected Population % (1)
1 Afghanistan 38,872 47 0.10
2 Andorra 1,483 5 1.93
5 Austria 35,853 139 0.40
10 Belarus 74,987 145 0.79
11 Belgium 97,976 349 0.85
16 Brunei 145 0 0.03
17 Burkina Faso 1,767 8 0.01
20 Canada 142,879 443 0.38
22 Chad 1,115 3 0.01
23 Chile 441,150 1,745 2.31
24 China 90,294 55 0.01
29 Cyprus 1,558 14 0.13
30 Denmark 21,836 88 0.38
31 Diamond Princess 712 1 19.24
33 Dominica 24 0 0.03
39 Eritrea 364 3 0.01
40 Estonia 2,778 8 0.21
43 Finland 8,799 22 0.16
44 France 454,266 3,283 0.70
47 Germany 269,048 745 0.32
49 Grenada 24 0 0.02
52 Guinea-Bissau 2,275 12 0.12
53 Haiti 8,556 21 0.08
54 Holy See 12 0 1.20
56 Iceland 2,206 3 0.65
58 Ireland 32,023 66 0.65
59 Italy 293,025 655 0.48
62 Korea, South 22,783 78 0.04
65 Kyrgyzstan 45,153 183 0.73
66 Laos 23 0 0.00
67 Latvia 1,494 4 0.08
69 Liechtenstein 112 1 0.29
74 Malaysia 10,052 19 0.03
75 Mali 2,966 9 0.02
76 Mauritania 7,346 22 0.16
77 Mauritius 366 2 0.03
79 Monaco 186 3 0.48
82 MS Zaandam 9 0 0.50
83 Netherlands 92,262 376 0.54
84 New Zealand 1,809 4 0.04
86 Niger 1,183 7 0.01
89 Norway 12,644 36 0.23
95 Qatar 122,693 230 4.26
97 Saint Kitts and Nevis 17 0 0.03
98 Saint Lucia 27 0 0.01
100 San Marino 723 7 2.13
103 Seychelles 141 1 0.14
104 Sierra Leone 2,133 5 0.01
105 Singapore 57,532 103 0.98
106 Somalia 3,390 5 0.02
109 Sudan 13,535 52 0.03
112 Switzerland 48,795 136 0.56
113 Taiwan* 503 2 0.00
115 Thailand 3,497 4 0.01
116 Timor-Leste 27 0 0.00
117 Turkey 298,039 1,216 0.35
118 United Arab Emirates 82,568 424 0.83
119 United Kingdom 384,087 1,151 0.57

3 First Wave Ongoing

The following countries are still in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country Reported Cases Expected Additional Cases In First Wave Expected Total Cases For First Wave Infected Population % (1)
3 Antigua and Barbuda 95 60 155 0.16
4 Armenia 46,671 2,261 48,932 1.65
6 Azerbaijan 38,777 3,094 41,871 0.41
7 Bahamas 3,177 2,115 5,292 1.34
8 Bahrain 63,189 14,378 77,567 4.56
9 Bangladesh 344,264 63,858 408,122 0.25
12 Belize 1,567 526 2,093 0.56
13 Benin 2,280 144 2,424 0.02
14 Bolivia 129,419 50,256 179,675 1.54
15 Brazil 4,455,386 2,498,607 6,953,993 3.27
18 Burundi 473 58 531 0.00
19 Cameroon 20,303 1,115 21,418 0.08
21 Central African Republic 4,782 29 4,811 0.10
25 Congo (Brazzaville) 4,934 2,066 7,000 0.13
26 Congo (Kinshasa) 10,442 277 10,719 0.01
27 Cote d’Ivoire 19,158 1,394 20,552 0.08
28 Cuba 4,933 4,684 9,617 0.08
32 Djibouti 5,399 61 5,460 0.57
34 Dominican Republic 106,136 90,992 197,128 1.82
35 Ecuador 122,257 79,377 201,634 1.14
36 Egypt 101,641 2,737 104,378 0.10
37 El Salvador 27,249 10,974 38,223 0.60
38 Equatorial Guinea 5,002 1,533 6,535 0.47
41 Eswatini 5,191 2,891 8,082 0.70
42 Fiji 32 10 42 0.00
45 Gabon 8,678 738 9,416 0.42
46 Gambia 3,473 476 3,949 0.19
48 Ghana 45,714 14,297 60,011 0.19
50 Guatemala 83,664 27,600 111,264 0.62
51 Guinea 10,154 2,598 12,752 0.10
55 Honduras 70,120 21,628 91,748 0.93
57 Iran 413,149 208,301 621,450 0.74
60 Kazakhstan 107,134 6,472 113,606 0.61
61 Kenya 36,576 10,991 47,567 0.09
63 Kosovo 12,683 3,783 16,466 0.00
64 Kuwait 97,824 17,844 115,668 2.71
68 Liberia 1,333 164 1,497 0.03
70 Lithuania 3,504 227 3,731 0.14
71 Luxembourg 7,541 1,836 9,377 1.50
72 Madagascar 15,925 907 16,832 0.07
73 Malawi 5,711 671 6,382 0.03
78 Mexico 684,113 354,361 1,038,474 0.81
80 Mongolia 311 9 320 0.01
81 Montenegro 7,503 6,566 14,069 2.24
85 Nicaragua 4,961 265 5,226 0.08
87 Nigeria 56,735 11,553 68,288 0.03
88 North Macedonia 16,274 9,337 25,611 1.23
90 Oman 91,753 3,312 95,065 1.86
91 Pakistan 304,386 5,437 309,823 0.14
92 Panama 104,138 70,182 174,320 4.04
93 Papua New Guinea 516 64 580 0.01
94 Portugal 66,396 611 67,007 0.66
96 Russia 1,081,152 54,808 1,135,960 0.78
99 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 64 55 119 0.11
101 Saudi Arabia 328,144 33,741 361,885 1.04
102 Senegal 14,618 5,494 20,112 0.12
107 South Africa 655,572 50,629 706,201 1.19
108 Sri Lanka 3,276 127 3,403 0.02
110 Suriname 4,671 3,046 7,717 1.31
111 Sweden 87,885 6,244 94,129 0.93
114 Tanzania 509 2 511 0.00
120 Uzbekistan 49,627 42,524 92,151 0.28
121 Zambia 13,928 8,489 22,417 0.13
122 Zimbabwe 7,633 1,525 9,158 0.06

Notes:

  1. Infected Population refers to the share of reported cases wrt. total population of the country and does not include patients that were not reported or asymptomatic.

  2. If future cases are 0, the first wave has ended in the country according to our model and the virus is now in an endemic phase, where new cases will pop up and need to be handled efficiently.

We could not yet find reliable models countries that are not listed above, but we are updating the list and our assessment on a daily basis.

Disclaimer: This is preliminary research provided on a timely basis for information only. It is not intended as commercial, legal, medical, financial or political advice.

4 Frequently Asked Question (FAQ)

4.1 What is this ?

An analysis of Covid-19 case time series around the world with projections and forecasts how cases numbers might grow in the week ahead due to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (Corona) virus infections.

4.2 How does this work ?

4.3 Whom should I contact for questions ?

Please contact Raphael Volz () in case of questions about the analyses. Your feedback is welcome!