1 Fast Facts

2 First Wave Ended

SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic in the following countries:

Country Reported Case Total Expected New Cases/Day Infected Population % (1)
3 Andorra 855 2 1.11
4 Australia 8,443 24 0.03
5 Austria 18,165 49 0.20
7 Barbados 97 0 0.03
9 Belgium 61,838 126 0.53
10 Belize 30 0 0.01
13 Brunei 141 0 0.03
14 Burkina Faso 987 5 0.00
16 Cambodia 141 0 0.00
20 China 84,857 81 0.01
21 Croatia 3,094 16 0.08
22 Cuba 2,369 10 0.02
23 Cyprus 1,002 2 0.08
24 Czechia 12,440 74 0.12
25 Denmark 13,032 28 0.22
28 Dominica 18 0 0.02
29 Ecuador 61,535 1,310 0.35
30 Estonia 1,993 4 0.15
32 Fiji 18 0 0.00
34 France 204,222 2,282 0.31
37 Germany 197,198 422 0.24
38 Greece 3,511 15 0.03
39 Grenada 23 0 0.02
41 Guinea-Bissau 1,765 15 0.09
44 Holy See 12 0 1.20
46 Iceland 1,860 1 0.55
49 Israel 29,170 203 0.34
50 Italy 241,419 188 0.40
51 Jamaica 728 4 0.02
52 Japan 19,461 257 0.02
54 Korea, South 13,091 42 0.03
56 Laos 19 0 0.00
57 Latvia 1,123 1 0.06
59 Liechtenstein 83 2 0.22
60 Lithuania 1,831 33 0.07
61 Luxembourg 4,476 11 0.72
62 Malaysia 8,658 43 0.03
65 Malta 672 3 0.15
66 Mauritius 341 2 0.03
67 Monaco 106 0 0.27
69 Montenegro 720 5 0.11
71 MS Zaandam 9 0 0.50
72 Netherlands 50,548 138 0.29
73 New Zealand 1,533 2 0.03
75 Niger 1,082 6 0.01
76 Norway 8,926 17 0.16
77 Papua New Guinea 11 0 0.00
80 Portugal 43,569 373 0.43
84 Saint Kitts and Nevis 16 0 0.03
85 Saint Lucia 22 0 0.01
89 Serbia 15,829 103 0.18
92 Slovakia 1,749 5 0.03
93 Slovenia 1,679 4 0.08
95 Spain 250,545 3,940 0.54
98 Switzerland 32,198 31 0.37
99 Taiwan* 449 0 0.00
101 Thailand 3,185 4 0.00
102 Timor-Leste 24 0 0.00
104 Trinidad and Tobago 130 0 0.01
105 Tunisia 1,186 2 0.01
106 Turkey 204,610 1,164 0.24
110 Uruguay 955 13 0.03
112 Vietnam 355 1 0.00

3 First Wave Ongoing

The following countries are still in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country Reported Cases Expected Additional Cases In First Wave Expected Total Cases For First Wave Infected Population % (1)
1 Afghanistan 32,672 12,414 45,086 0.12
2 Algeria 15,500 4,439 19,939 0.05
6 Bahamas 104 1 105 0.03
8 Belarus 63,270 12,240 75,510 0.80
11 Bhutan 78 21 99 0.01
12 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4,962 2,560 7,522 0.23
15 Burma 313 10 323 0.00
17 Canada 107,185 4,477 111,662 0.30
18 Central African Republic 3,969 3,191 7,160 0.15
19 Chad 871 16 887 0.01
26 Diamond Princess 712 1 713 19.27
27 Djibouti 4,736 1,913 6,649 0.69
31 Ethiopia 5,846 3,493 9,339 0.01
33 Finland 7,248 163 7,411 0.13
35 Gabon 5,620 3,084 8,704 0.39
36 Georgia 948 19 967 0.02
40 Guinea 5,570 948 6,518 0.05
42 Guyana 272 184 456 0.06
43 Haiti 6,294 1,013 7,307 0.07
45 Hungary 4,174 28 4,202 0.04
47 Iran 237,878 168,710 406,588 0.48
48 Ireland 25,509 41 25,550 0.52
53 Jordan 1,150 937 2,087 0.02
55 Kuwait 49,303 10,706 60,009 1.41
58 Lebanon 1,855 1,371 3,226 0.05
63 Maldives 2,435 155 2,590 0.48
64 Mali 2,303 1,319 3,622 0.02
68 Mongolia 220 26 246 0.01
70 Morocco 13,822 1,714 15,536 0.04
74 Nicaragua 2,519 574 3,093 0.05
78 Peru 299,080 135,301 434,381 1.32
79 Poland 35,719 12,216 47,935 0.13
81 Qatar 99,183 36,185 135,368 4.70
82 Romania 28,582 1,024 29,606 0.15
83 Russia 673,564 152,635 826,199 0.57
86 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 29 5 34 0.03
87 San Marino 698 25 723 2.13
88 Senegal 7,272 5,212 12,484 0.07
90 Sierra Leone 1,533 364 1,897 0.01
91 Singapore 44,664 2,049 46,713 0.80
94 Somalia 2,961 507 3,468 0.02
96 Sri Lanka 2,074 588 2,662 0.01
97 Sudan 9,767 2,473 12,240 0.03
100 Tanzania 509 4 513 0.00
103 Togo 676 220 896 0.01
107 Uganda 927 453 1,380 0.00
108 United Arab Emirates 50,857 10,999 61,856 0.63
109 United Kingdom 286,412 4,982 291,394 0.43
111 US 2,839,436 403,931 3,243,367 0.98
113 Zambia 1,632 29 1,661 0.01
114 Zimbabwe 698 258 956 0.01

Notes:

  1. Infected Population refers to the share of reported cases wrt. total population of the country and does not include patients that were not reported or asymptomatic.

  2. If future cases are 0, the first wave has ended in the country according to our model and the virus is now in an endemic phase, where new cases will pop up and need to be handled efficiently.

We could not yet find reliable models countries that are not listed above, but we are updating the list and our assessment on a daily basis.

Disclaimer: This is preliminary research provided on a timely basis for information only. It is not intended as commercial, legal, medical, financial or political advice.

4 Frequently Asked Question (FAQ)

4.1 What is this ?

An analysis of Covid-19 case time series around the world with projections and forecasts how cases numbers might grow in the week ahead due to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (Corona) virus infections.

4.2 How does this work ?

4.3 Whom should I contact for questions ?

Please contact Raphael Volz () in case of questions about the analyses. Your feedback is welcome!