1 Fast Facts

2 First Wave Ended

SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic in the following countries:

Country Reported Case Total Expected New Cases/Day Infected Population % (1)
1 Afghanistan 40,141 45 0.10
4 Armenia 63,000 313 2.13
5 Azerbaijan 44,317 154 0.44
9 Belarus 87,063 225 0.92
11 Benin 2,496 24 0.02
14 Brunei 147 0 0.03
19 Canada 197,067 757 0.52
20 Central African Republic 4,855 3 0.10
21 Chad 1,365 4 0.01
22 Chile 490,003 1,694 2.56
23 China 90,955 54 0.01
26 Congo (Kinshasa) 11,000 19 0.01
28 Diamond Princess 712 0 19.24
29 Djibouti 5,452 9 0.57
32 Egypt 105,297 121 0.10
35 Eritrea 452 2 0.01
40 Finland 13,293 49 0.24
43 Germany 364,664 1,190 0.44
45 Grenada 27 0 0.02
48 Guinea-Bissau 2,389 0 0.13
49 Haiti 8,956 18 0.08
50 Holy See 27 2 2.70
52 Iceland 3,998 12 1.17
55 Ireland 48,678 161 0.99
56 Italy 402,536 1,256 0.67
61 Kyrgyzstan 51,490 106 0.83
62 Laos 23 0 0.00
67 Malaysia 19,627 83 0.06
68 Mali 3,379 10 0.02
69 Mauritania 7,607 15 0.16
70 Mauritius 417 2 0.03
72 Mongolia 320 1 0.01
73 MS Zaandam 9 0 0.50
75 New Zealand 1,886 4 0.04
77 Niger 1,209 6 0.01
80 Norway 16,369 51 0.30
81 Oman 108,296 371 2.12
82 Pakistan 323,019 557 0.15
84 Papua New Guinea 581 7 0.01
88 Qatar 129,227 224 4.49
91 Saint Kitts and Nevis 19 0 0.03
92 Saint Lucia 33 0 0.02
94 San Marino 759 7 2.23
98 Seychelles 149 1 0.15
99 Sierra Leone 2,327 6 0.01
101 Somalia 3,864 9 0.02
102 South Africa 702,131 1,557 1.18
103 Sri Lanka 5,475 110 0.03
106 Sweden 103,200 312 1.02
109 Taiwan* 535 2 0.00
111 Thailand 3,686 4 0.01
112 Timor-Leste 29 0 0.00
116 United Kingdom 708,298 3,327 1.04

3 First Wave Ongoing

The following countries are still in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country Reported Cases Expected Additional Cases In First Wave Expected Total Cases For First Wave Infected Population % (1)
2 Algeria 54,203 24,200 78,403 0.18
3 Antigua and Barbuda 119 16 135 0.14
6 Bahamas 5,628 5,236 10,864 2.75
7 Bahrain 77,571 33,953 111,524 6.55
8 Bangladesh 387,295 38,734 426,029 0.26
10 Belize 2,775 976 3,751 1.00
12 Bolivia 139,710 19,845 159,555 1.37
13 Brazil 5,224,362 1,456,840 6,681,202 3.14
15 Bulgaria 29,108 23,272 52,380 0.75
16 Burundi 536 3 539 0.00
17 Cambodia 283 132 415 0.00
18 Cameroon 21,441 299 21,740 0.08
24 Colombia 952,371 303,688 1,256,059 2.47
25 Congo (Brazzaville) 5,156 782 5,938 0.11
27 Cote d’Ivoire 20,301 369 20,670 0.08
30 Dominican Republic 120,925 34,986 155,911 1.44
31 Ecuador 152,422 87,294 239,716 1.36
33 El Salvador 31,456 2,392 33,848 0.53
34 Equatorial Guinea 5,070 552 5,622 0.40
36 Estonia 4,052 1,183 5,235 0.39
37 Eswatini 5,765 774 6,539 0.56
38 Ethiopia 88,434 27,783 116,217 0.10
39 Fiji 32 9 41 0.00
41 Gabon 8,881 316 9,197 0.41
42 Gambia 3,649 138 3,787 0.18
44 Ghana 47,232 4,807 52,039 0.17
46 Guatemala 101,028 14,988 116,016 0.65
47 Guinea 11,478 1,851 13,329 0.10
51 Honduras 87,594 18,783 106,377 1.07
53 Iran 526,490 276,945 803,435 0.96
54 Iraq 423,524 420,032 843,556 2.10
57 Kazakhstan 109,406 1,280 110,686 0.59
58 Kenya 44,196 400 44,596 0.08
59 Kosovo 16,606 1,769 18,375 0.00
60 Kuwait 115,483 23,343 138,826 3.25
63 Liberia 1,377 51 1,428 0.03
64 Luxembourg 10,471 4,679 15,150 2.42
65 Madagascar 16,810 69 16,879 0.07
66 Malawi 5,852 188 6,040 0.03
71 Mexico 847,108 262,147 1,109,255 0.86
74 Namibia 12,263 2,132 14,395 0.57
76 Nicaragua 5,353 161 5,514 0.09
78 Nigeria 61,307 4,396 65,703 0.03
79 North Macedonia 23,201 10,590 33,791 1.62
83 Panama 124,107 35,967 160,074 3.71
85 Peru 862,417 624,118 1,486,535 4.51
86 Philippines 354,338 229,583 583,921 0.53
87 Portugal 98,055 34,264 132,319 1.30
89 Russia 1,376,020 9,561 1,385,581 0.95
90 Rwanda 4,971 2,924 7,895 0.06
93 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 67 18 85 0.08
95 Saudi Arabia 341,854 13,753 355,607 1.02
96 Senegal 15,392 2,904 18,296 0.11
97 Serbia 35,946 12,832 48,778 0.56
100 Singapore 57,904 290 58,194 0.99
104 Sudan 13,691 31 13,722 0.03
105 Suriname 5,123 544 5,667 0.97
107 Switzerland 74,422 22,115 96,537 1.12
108 Syria 5,033 1,513 6,546 0.04
110 Tanzania 509 1 510 0.00
113 Trinidad and Tobago 5,281 978 6,259 0.45
114 Turkey 345,678 6,918 352,596 0.42
115 United Arab Emirates 114,387 22,652 137,039 1.39
117 US 8,106,384 5,499,633 13,606,017 4.11
118 Uzbekistan 62,809 26,365 89,174 0.27
119 Venezuela 86,289 53,124 139,413 0.49
120 Zambia 15,789 1,381 17,170 0.10
121 Zimbabwe 8,110 359 8,469 0.05

Notes:

  1. Infected Population refers to the share of reported cases wrt. total population of the country and does not include patients that were not reported or asymptomatic.

  2. If future cases are 0, the first wave has ended in the country according to our model and the virus is now in an endemic phase, where new cases will pop up and need to be handled efficiently.

We could not yet find reliable models countries that are not listed above, but we are updating the list and our assessment on a daily basis.

Disclaimer: This is preliminary research provided on a timely basis for information only. It is not intended as commercial, legal, medical, financial or political advice.

4 Frequently Asked Question (FAQ)

4.1 What is this ?

An analysis of Covid-19 case time series around the world with projections and forecasts how cases numbers might grow in the week ahead due to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (Corona) virus infections.

4.2 How does this work ?

4.3 Whom should I contact for questions ?

Please contact Raphael Volz () in case of questions about the analyses. Your feedback is welcome!